Yayın Adı

AN EXAMINATION OF AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIVITY AND RETURNS TO AGRICULTURAL RESEARCH IN TURKEY

Proje Ekibi

W. Hartley FURTAN, Alper GÜZEL, Giannis KARAGIANNIS, Ahmet  BAYANER

Yayın Tarihi May 1999 Ankara
Yayın No  
 

 

The Turkish economy is dependent upon the agriculture sector as a source of employment and economic growth.  Agriculture makes up about 15% to 16% of the Turkish GDP and more than one-third of the population as such is very important.  The productivity growth of the sector is extremely important if the government wishes to have food prices not increase for a population that is growing at approximately 1.7% per annum.

            This paper reviews the current economic methods for estimating agricultural productivity.  We then proceed to estimate the growth in Total Factor Productivity (TFP) for the period 1967-97.  TFP is the ratio of an output index and an input index.  We made a detailed search of input use and output production for Turkish agriculture for the entire period (all data is reported on a disk).  Much of this data has not been brought together before for the agriculture sector in Turkey and as such represents a contribution in its own right.

We then estimated the TFP using the Tornqvist index. Our results show that the TFP increased at an annual rate of 4.07% over the entire period.  However when we examine the period 1967-88 the growth was 5.58% and for the period 1988-96 the growth rate was -0.06%.  This lower growth rate suggests that the productivity growth in the sector has stopped; a major concern for the Turkish government.  We also found that the TFP index and Research an Development index in Turkish agriculture are cointegrated. The econometric estimation yielded a long-run Research and Development expenditures elasticity  TFP around unity.

 

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